145 shared publications
Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (AESRD)
32 shared publications
Rush University Medical Center
14 shared publications
Department of Geography, University of Montreal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal (Qué., H3C 2J7 Tel.: 514-343-8067, Fax: 514-343-8008
14 shared publications
Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
2 shared publications
The Elbow River watershed, located in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, has experienced several extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods over the last century. It is therefore critical to understand the future possible responses of the hydrological processes to changes in climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) since they can induce considerable stress to the watershed along with economic and social costs. Very little attention has been given so far in the literature to the combined impact of climate and LULC change on hydrological processes at the watershed scale, which might result in an over- or under-estimation of the responses. This study was undertaken to investigate the responses of hydrological processes to the combined impact of climate and LULC change in the watershed in the 2020s and 2050s. The physically-based, distributed MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model was coupled with a LULC cellular automata model to simulate hydrological processes using two extreme GCM-scenarios and two LULC change scenarios. Results reveal that LULC change is the dominant factor affecting the majority of the hydrological processes, especially streamflow, and that it plays a key role in amplifying a rise in flow discharge in the Elbow River. Evapotranspiration and infiltration are more strongly affected by both climate and LULC change in winter while streamflow is more impacted in the spring. The separated impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence. This is particularly the case in spring when the combined impact of climate and LULC results in a significant rise in streamflow, which may increase the vulnerability of the watershed to floods in this season. The flow duration curves (FDC) indicate that LULC change has a greater contribution to peak flows than climate change in both the 2020s and 2050s. This study highlights the importance of investigating the combined impact of climate and LULC change to avoid underestimating or overestimating water storage in the watershed.
Understanding the hydrogeology of aquifers is fundamental to the management of groundwater resources especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, understanding the responses of hydrogeological processes to climate change is complicated since climate change can affect hydrogeological processes directly and indirectly. This study aims at implementing a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater system under fifteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) in a semi-arid region for the period of 2020-2044. A nonparametric method, Probability Density Function (PDF) estimator, was used to quantify the level of uncertainties in the simulations. The methodology was applied in an area of 2073 Km2 in south-west Iran, consist of five plains; Western Dez, eastern Dez, Sabili, Deymche and Lor. Results indicate that there is a decline in recharge in April, May, June, and October. The range of changes in recharge were determined between -%10 and +%13 in the Sabili plain, -%6 and +%10 in the Deymche plain, -%4 and +%10 in the western-Dez plain, -%6 and +%26 in the eastern-Dez plain, -%40 and +%100 in the Lor plain. The most significant decline in groundwater level occurs in the Sabili plain in September. The largest uncertainty in simulation of recharge under GCM scenarios was determined in August, September, and December.